United States Senate (Chart and Open Virginia)

Cross-posted at Election Inspection under elliotka and at Daily Kos under NMLib

Ok, for a bit of a break in the primary action, it’s time to start looking at some Senate races. Basically, what I’m going to do is do a ranking system much like Charlie Cook does, only I will also be giving a fairly detailed analysis of each race, also the races which would normally be classified as “likely” for incumbent parties, I’m going to label as Possible Darkhorse Races. Finally, I’m going to do this list in multiple posts, as to be more thorough with each race. I will not be giving an analysis of any incumbent races which I see as being completely uncompetitive, just because there’s no reason for it.

(Formating note: races with an incumbent running for re-election will have that incumbent followed by the state in parenthesis, and vice-versa for open seat contests)

Solid Democratic (Pick-up)

  • Virginia (Warner)

Solid Democratic (Retention)

  • Kerry (Massachusetts)
  • Durbin (Illinois)
  • Baucus (Montana)
  • Johnson (South Dakota)
  • Levin (Michigan)
  • Lautenberg (New Jersey)
  • Harkin (Iowa)
  • Biden (Delaware)
  • Reed (Rhode Island)
  • Pryor (Arkansas)
  • Rockefeller (West Virginia)

Leans Democratic (Pick-up)

  • New Mexico (Domenici)
  • Sununu (New Hampshire)

Leans Democratic (Retention)

  • Landrieu (Lousiana)

Toss-up

  • Colorado (Allard)
  • Coleman (Minnesota)

Leans Republican (Retention)

  • Smith (Oregon)
  • Collins (Maine)

Solid Republican (Retention)

  • Graham (South Carolina)
  • McConnell (Kentucky)
  • Enzi (Wyoming-A)
  • Barrasso (Wyoming-B)
  • Sessions (Alabama)
  • Roberts (Kansas)
  • Cochran (Mississippi-A)
  • Chambliss (Georgia)
  • Alexander (Tennessee)

Possible Darkhorse Races (Republicans)

  • Idaho (Craig)
  • Wicker (Mississippi-B)
  • Dole (North Carolina)
  • Stevens (Alaska)*
  • Nebraska (Hagel)
  • Cornyn (Texas)
  • Inhofe (Oklahoma)

I’m going to try to break these posts into looking at each category separately. And so we’ll start with the single Solid Democratic pick-up seat:

Virginia

  • Status: Open Seat
  • Ranking: Solid Democratic (Pick-up)

Democrat running: Mark Warner (former governor)

  • Money raised Quarter 4: $2.7 million
  • Cash on Hand as of 2007: $2.9 million

Republican running: Jim Gilmore

  • Money raised Quarter 4: $343,000
  • Cash on Hand as of 2007: $183,000

Polling from Virginia

  • Rasmussen (Released January 3) Warner 53% Gilmore 38%
  • Survey USA (Released November 5) Warner 57% Gilmore 35%

Analysis: This is probably going to be the most lop-sided victory by the challenging party in the entire season. What’s really ironic is that this race could’ve been a lot more competitive had the Republicans rallied behind Northern Virginia Congressman Tom Davis, who not only had a base of support in Democratic-leaning Northern Virginia, but could actually fundraise effectively. Instead the Republicans rallied behind decidedly unpopular former governor Jim Gilmore (who was forced to drop out of the presidential race because of, you guessed it, lack of funds). The only possible way to describe Gilmore is with what Senate2008Guru has said “Jim Gilmore… hahahahahahahahaha”  The real irony of this particular race is that Mark Warner was also considering a presidential run this time around, but one of the more interesting rumors I’ve heard is that he decided against running because many of the donors who would’ve given to his campaign had already pledged themselves to Barack Obama (this hasn’t generated bad blood though, since Warner is, behind the scenes, rooting for Obama). So what we are left with is a race with a top-tier Democratic candidate who could’ve easily run a fifty-state strategy against an third-tier candidate who no one knows or likes. You can see why I rank this race Solid Democratic.

Next time: New Mexico and New Hampshire (and possibly Louisiana)

7 thoughts on “United States Senate (Chart and Open Virginia)”

  1. I think your under estimating Lunsford’s chances in KY.  That should definetly be a dark horse race.  Our biggest problem against McConnell was always going to be money and Lunsford will have plenty of that.  

    Lunsford may never be a great Democrat for us, but he will run strong here and we need to support him.  He is after all, much better than Mitch McConnell.  

  2. I am pretty much in total agreement with your rankings.  Virginia is likely Dem, NM and NH are leaning our way, Colorado and MN are the toss-ups.  Then I think that OR, ME, AK, and MS-B are the races the DS is planning on investing heavily in, no matter what.  9 prime targets is incredible.  I also agree that Texas, Oklahoma, NC, Nebraska and Idaho are five darkhorses and a few of them will turn into prime targets by the time we hit summer.  Kentucky (Lunsford) will probably just be used to force McConnell to spend some cash on the race, I’m really bummed about Horne dropping out.

    Nice analysis, looking forward to the next edition.

  3. You’ll probably disagree with me but I’d place NE in the solid Republican column. Sorry, but Johanns is going to win, being solid R territory and in a Presidential year.

    I would place CO in either the Tossup or Lean Dem column as Udall is less hated than Schaffer.

    NM I would also place either in Lean Dem or Solid Dem pickup as Udall is going to thrash either Wilson or Pearce, what with a bloody GOP primary and the candidates etc.

    Still, though, great analysis.

  4. Lunsford may not make it to the general election.  Progressives are pissed at the DSCC meddling and Greg Fischer has the money to match Lunsford.  It’s over if Fischer allies with the progressives (activists) and labor.  The disaffection with Bush could give any democratic challenger a chance this year in Kentucky.  Lunsford should not be viewed as the inevitable challenger to McConnell.

Comments are closed.